This was the last election the GOP had a chance to win by simply going after a white male dominated majority. With major demographic changes to the electorate projected over the next 4 to 8 years the Republican Party will either have to dramatically change both its xenophobic and ethnocentric rhetoric and policy positions, or we will watch sadly (snicker) as the GOP withers away into oblivion.
Unfortunately for the Republican Party, they have demonstrated an amazing level of stubbornness against change. As the country has moved to the left, they’ve moved further to the right and pushed the moderates out. Their base tends to be rabid, so it is really hard to see them moving away from the rhetoric that excites their base, wins primaries, and raises the money needed to compete in serious races.
Thus, my predictions for the presidential electoral college map in 2016 and 2020 may astonish you, but I believe it is a serious reality to expect.
Arizona will be in play in 2016, and Texas by 2020. Why? Exploding Latino populations in these states with overwhelming Democratic voting habits.
With such dramatic effect on the electoral scene, there is bound to be some political realignment, perhaps the creation of a third party. In any scenario, it’s hard to see a fractured right wing doing well. Welcome to change.
Justin is the publisher The Nevada View, which has earned the recognition in the Washington Post’s “Best State-Based Political Blogs,” as well as being awarded the “Most Valuable Blogger Award” by the local CBS affiliate in 2011. Follow him on Twitter @McAffee