An Uphill Battle of Numbers for Democrat Kate Marshall in Nevada’s CD2
In 2010, Dean Heller trounced Democrat Nancy Price in the race for Nevada’s 2nd Congressional district. Republican Heller won 63.3% of the vote, or 169,548 votes. Nancy Price won 32.7% of the vote, or 87,421 votes.
Here are the May, 2011 voter registration numbers for Nevada’s CD2 fresh from the Nevada Secretary of State’s office:
Republicans: 171,392
Democrats: 140,902
Non Partisan: 59,722
Independent American: 18,947
Lib: 2,700
Green: 1,175
Other: 1,756
There are 30, 490 fewer registered Democrats in the district than Republicans, and that gap must be narrowed if Kate Marshall is to win. That bears repeating: team Marshall and the state party must register more Democrats and get them all to the polls. She is also going to have to win non-partisan swing voters. There are just over 60,000 non-affiliated voters in Nevada’s far open spaces who apparently will vote their minds, but Jill Derby could not win enough of them. In the 2008 race, Heller won 52% of the vote, or 170,610 votes, and Democrat Derby won 41%, or 136,313 votes. Derby has rural Nevada roots and is smart. Kate Marshall has called Nevada home for a dozen years and is smart and ambitious. I am interested to see how she’ll do in Elko and Eureka, places where she must win swing votes.
Long story short, Kate Marshall must do something different than her predecessors in order to capture this seat. Republican Mark Amodei’s support for the Ryan budget and unpopular Medicare “solutions” may help weaken the Heller clone Amodei, but northern Nevada is not suburban Buffalo, by a long shot. If Kirk Lippold stays in the race and continues to refer to himself as the “true conservative,” that may siphon some Republican votes, but those factors will not tip the scales for Marshall. With a massive get out the vote effort and a well calculated and delivered message, Kate Marshall has a shot.
Ps. The Nevada Supreme Court will decide sometime before July 6th if the race will be open to all candidates or if only party nominees will run. More then.
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9 Responses to An Uphill Battle of Numbers for Democrat Kate Marshall in Nevada’s CD2
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Early voting starts today – LAMB/LAS VEGAS intersection, Thunderbird Parking Lot, in a trailer. Other locations are in Henderson area.
Not all of Vegas gets to vote, so Democrats – your vote makes a HUGE difference for Kate Marshall!
Election Day is at a weird time – September 13th. If you cannot catch early voting, be sure to vote on that day. C’mon, we cannot have bumble bumble Amodei as our representative. PLEASE VOTE!
It’s going to be a low turnout election. I’d say it’s pretty fair to think the registration numbers aren’t going to be too much a predictor. More about who can turn out their base.
Dems have an excellent, energetic candidate… while the GOP has a boring, uninspiring old white man.
If the voters can be educated to stop voting AGAINST their own economic interests, then it radically changes the dynamics of the district. The FACTS are that current GOP economic policies only favor the top 2%. If the other 98% can wake up, then we will have a radical demographic shift in ideology.
A lot of people think someday they too will become billionaires and do not want to see them pay extra taxes. Sorry, but the tax codes throw up a lot of road blocks towards upward mobility. For example, labor is taxed at a top rate of 35% while capital gains pays a mere 15%. People who are performing actual labor and providing goods or services pay at a much higher rate than someone who merely lets their money make money. Warren Buffet even admitted that his own secretary pays a higher tax rate than he does.
Another flaw in the tax code is that FICA taxes are capped at $108,600. There are NO deductions for that at all. One MUST pay it. For every cent beyond the $108,600 is literally tax free income when it comes to FICA. For example, some one who earns $1,000,000 a year did NOT pay FICA taxes of $992,400 of their money. That is $61,528 worth of tax savings. Those savings can then be applied to investments that have a mere 15% capital gains tax rate.That is why the rich can keep getting richer, and those working 3 jobs to live month to month are stuck in an economic caste.
If that was not enough wait until the public gets wind of Rep. Paul Ryan’s tax proposal which INCREASES TAXES for those making under $127,000 while lowering taxes for those above that amount. The bottom 20% will get hit the hardest! How anyone making under $127,000 would still want to vote Republican is beyond me.
Nancy PRICE not Nancy Peirce. Is it too much to ask you to at least get the candidates names correct? What shoddy journalism.
Fixed
I am concerned about blowback sentimentality for Kathy Augustine in this race. Now that she is dead the media re-worked her into a martyr. I thought there was some history between Kate Marshall and Kathy which needs to be managed from ground one to ensure that we don’t have another vote for me because a dead person would have said so scenario.
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Great historical recap and outline of the numbers. That’s a huge amount of unaffiliated voters – key demographic. It’s gonna be fun to follow this race!
Yes, Brian did a great job of telling it like it really is. It is an uphill battle, and she is really going to need to shake things up to win, I agree.